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Stopping an Undetectable Iranian Bomb

March 26, 2013  •  The Wall Street Journal

Iran's nuclear program dominated last week's meeting between U.S. President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A key challenge for both leaders: how to stop Iran's rapid advance toward "critical capability."

Critical capability means the point at which Iran could dash to produce enough weapons-grade uranium or separated plutonium for one bomb so quickly that the International Atomic Energy Agency or a Western intelligence service would be unable to detect the dash until it is over.

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Is Iran Resorting To An Insurance Scam To Keep Oil Exports Going?

November 15, 2012  •  Forbes

Europe's oil embargo against Iran, reinforced by U.S. extraterritorial measures, is having a serious impact on Iran's oil exports. Iran has lost all its European clients, and many habitual buyers have scaled down their dependence on its oil. This is due largely to European and U.S. sanctions on insurance and reinsurance for oil cargoes — which depend on Protection and Indemnity Coverage.

P&I for oil tankers covers pollution and spillage, and international maritime authorities require Very Large Crude Carriers — the largest class of tankers on the oceans — to carry mandatory third-party liability insurance for claims of up to $1 billion. P&I clubs, large insurance ventures backed by ship owners, provide the policies.

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Countdown to the Red Line in Iran

October 24, 2012  •  The Wall Street Journal

Iran's oil exports have been halved by economic sanctions, but that still leaves the regime with around $50 billion in oil income this year, according to calculations by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Nevertheless, the Iranian economy has taken a substantial hit from sanctions. After the rial lost nearly half of its value in a week earlier this month, Tehran began severely restricting access to dollars and euros.

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So You Want to Be a Sanctions-Buster

August 10, 2012  •  Foreign Policy

There's been a whole lot of head-scratching since it emerged -- smack in the middle of the London Olympics -- that Standard Chartered, one of the crown jewels of the British financial industry, may have been violating U.S. sanctions against Iran for the better part of a decade. The U.S. accounting firm Deloitte, which was hired to do an "independent" review of the bank's transactions, claimed to be in the dark, as did Standard Chartered executives. Even the U.S. Department of Justice and the Federal Reserve were caught off guard by the allegations, apparently unable to come to a consensus about the extent of the misconduct.

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Battle Rial

June 28, 2012  •  Foreign Policy

Sanctions are convulsing Iran. In the past seven months, the Western turn from targeted sanctions to broader economic warfare has presented the Iranian regime with perhaps its greatest economic challenge since the Iran-Iraq War.

A looming European Union oil embargo, which goes into effect on July 1, along with additional U.S. pressure on Iran's customers to reduce their oil purchases, will make matters worse for Iran's leaders. The situation is already dire: Iran suffers from hyperinflation, stagnant growth, and a crumbling currency. And oil revenues, which constitute 80 percent of Iran's export earnings and half its government budget, have already dropped almost 40 percent, year over year.

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