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Iran, which claims its nuclear work is a peaceful effort to generate electricity and does not include a bomb program, puts the failure in talks down to the six nations unwillingness to make concessions. But it has not walked out on negotiations, leading some analysts to think Iran wants a deal but is not willing to make the first move. In any case, the process has stalled. Experts from the two sides are to meet in Istanbul on Tuesday but no more high-level political meetings are scheduled at this point.
What happens if there is no progress in talks? Sanctions will continue and be tightened through better enforcement. There will be a continued effort to get as many nations as possible to carry out sanctions. In addition, waivers which Obama granted countries like China for reducing their purchases of Iranian oil by up to 22 percent come up for review in six months. The next rounds of waivers will almost surely require larger cuts in purchases. Mark Dubowitz, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, says the United States and Europe should "blacklist the entire Iranian energy sector as a 'zone of primary proliferation concern,' preventing international companies that do business in the United States or the European Union from doing business with it." But others say the sanctions are getting close to a level that would be considered an act of war.
In any case, there is the looming threat of war. A key factor here will be how much technical progress Iran makes, and thus how much of a threat of breaking out to make nuclear weapons it presents. Some so-called red lines have already been passed with no attack taking place. Such red lines, which it once was thought unthinkable for Iran to pass, were upping the level of uranium enrichment closer to weapon grade and outfitting with centrifuges a second enrichment site at Fordow, built under a mountain and so perhaps impregnable to an air bombing.
The Iranian nuclear crisis is littered with cautionary lines which have gone from red to pink to white as they failed to trigger any muscular, kinetic response. Obama has said that containment is not an option in dealing with Iran, but some think containment is actually what is taking place. As they say in investment advice, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. The crisis in Iran is a showdown in slow-motion, but it is still a showdown. There is no guarantee it will end well.
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